Why the Second Wave of COVID is Undeniable
States all across America are trying to slowly reopen, despite a lack of testing.
Senator Rand Paul, has even called out Dr. Fauci and questioned his expertise regarding the need for social distancing.
“I don’t think you’re the end-all. I don’t think you’re the one person who gets to make a decision. We can listen to your advice, but there are people on the other side saying there’s not going to be a surge and that we can safely open the economy.”
Trump is even claiming the number of cases in the country are declining, which might be true if you just look at the aggregrate number of net new cases on a daily basis.
The only problem with this chart though, is that this is taking into account all the states, even those with comprehensive testing, and where all the action has been happening. When we remove the NY and NJ state, we’re seeing a much more troubling sign.
These COVID case numbers are incredibly skewed, because many states like Florida are no longer reporting on a daily basis the case numbers. That along with the lack of available testing it’s safe to assume that the number of present net new COVID cases are dramatically underreported, but even if you don’t believe that to be true, the trend still indicates that we are seeing a rise in net new COVID cases with current testing and reporting procedures.
But even, with all that, its easy to see that the number of COVID cases are actually rising across the country, at a time when the President and so many Govenors are trying to dramtically reopen their economy. According to the NYT:
More than half of U.S. states have begun to reopen their economies or plan to do so soon. But most fail to meet criteria recommended by the Trump administration to resume business and social activities.
This will dramatically kill the economy, slowly at first, then suddenly…but we can see how it plays out. As, local economies re-open prematurely, due to false assumptions and inconsistent standards and guidelines, we can see the path forward.
- COVID cases are actually on the rise, for the rest of America (outside of the New York metropolitan region, the original hot spot) indicating we’re about to be heading towards the peak, as a country at large, rather than having already peaked.
- The lack of available tests will accelerate the number of COVID cases as economies reopen and relax their social distancing measures, states will not have a true idea of infection rates, to make actionable plans to deal with random hot spot areas.
- Once economies are “open”, that means a lot of the income support will be removed, forcing people who aren’t healthy to work (because they’re no longer getting the additional funds they need at the moment due to a pandemic), which could further exacerbate infection rates.
- States with GOP pride will continue to accelerate their re-opening, despite knowing its not the best idea, as rapid re-opening can cause an increase in exposure to COVID as denser gatherings occur, potentially increasing the death tolls of those states.
- The large spike in cases of will overwhelm many hospital systems. This may further depress local economies as they’ll no longer be receiving much government aid and support.
- Once it’s evident that the number of cases are dramtically increasing, who knows what will happen. Trump or GOP states might stop being transparent with their data (see Florida), further exacerbating our knowledge gap and information assymmetry making it harder for the economy to actually recover.
Combining these factors paints a bleak picture where we will see an accelerated increase in cases of COVID, thereby overwhelming hospitals, driving an increase in total deaths as many of these states have large populations of at risk individuals. The increase in stressors to our hospital systems along with no more economic safety nets, will cause more strife and unrest.
The second wave of diseases will take place in less equipped states and hospitals, to individuals with not enough real money. And at this point Federal Government may no longer be willing or able to support another bailout. But as these states become overwhelmed with patients and the dread and doubt continue to trickle down these residents, we’ll see less trust and willingness to collaborate across all US residents.
And that’s the final bell of the final round.
